When the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) swept to a landslide in the general elections on Friday, Delhi responded with studied warmth.
In a message posted in Bengali, Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated BNP leader Tarique Rahman, the 60-year-old dynast, on a "decisive victory". He pledged India's support for a "democratic, progressive and inclusive" neighbour. He added that he looked forward to working closely to strengthen "our multifaceted relationship".
The tone was forward-looking - and careful. Since Sheikh Hasina fled to India after the Gen Z-led July 2024 uprising, ties between the neighbours have frayed, with mistrust hardening on both sides. Hasina's Awami League - the country's oldest party - was barred from contesting the election.
Many Bangladeshis fault Delhi for backing an increasingly authoritarian Hasina - a grievance layered atop older complaints over border killings, water disputes, trade curbs and incendiary rhetoric. Visa services are largely suspended, cross-border trains and buses halted, and flights between Dhaka and Delhi sharply reduced.
For Delhi, the question is not whether to engage a BNP government - but how: securing its red lines on insurgency and extremism while cooling rhetoric that has turned Bangladesh into a domestic political talking-point.
A reset is possible, say analysts. But it will require restraint - and reciprocity.
"The BNP, the most politically experienced and moderate of the parties in the fray, is India's safest bet moving forward. The question remains: how will Rahman govern the country? He is clearly seeking to stabilise India-Bangladesh ties. But this is easier said than done," says Avinash Paliwal, who teaches politics and international studies at SOAS University of London.
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When the party - under Rahman's mother Khaleda Zia - returned to power in 2001 in coalition with the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami, ties with India cooled quickly. The BNP-Jamaat years were marked by turbulence and deep mutual mistrust.
Despite early courtesies - India's then national security adviser Brajesh Mishra was the first foreign dignitary to congratulate Khaleda Zia - trust proved thin. The apparent ease with which the BNP maintained relations with Washington, Beijing and Islamabad fed Delhi's suspicion that Dhaka was drifting strategically.
Two Indian red lines were soon tested: curbing support for north-eastern insurgents and protecting Hindu minorities.
Post-election attacks on Hindus in districts such as Bhola and Jessore alarmed Delhi. More damaging was the April 2004 seizure of 10 truckloads of weapons in Chittagong - the largest arms haul in Bangladesh's history - allegedly destined for Indian rebel groups. Economic ties fared little better. A proposed $3bn investment by Tata Group stalled over gas pricing and collapsed in 2008.
Ties kept deteriorating. In 2014, Zia - then in opposition - cancelled a scheduled meeting with then Indian president Pranab Mukherjee, citing security concerns, in what was widely seen as a snub to Delhi.
That uneasy history helps explain why India later invested so heavily in Sheikh Hasina.
In her 15 years in power, Hasina delivered what Delhi prizes most in its neighbourhood: security co-operation against insurgents, improved connectivity and a government broadly aligned with India rather than China - a partnership as strategically valuable as it was politically costly.
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